Top-ranked Gators hit the SEC road

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/27/2007 - Auburn, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top-ranked Florida Gators continue their feverish run through the SEC, as they travel to Alabama this weekend to battle the Auburn Tigers from the Beard-Eaves Coliseum.

This is the third straight SEC West foe for Florida, which moved to 5-0 in league play with this week's 70-67 win over Mississippi State. Since a loss to Florida State on December 3rd, the Gators have strung together 11 straight victories to move to 18-2 overall.

The Tigers are facing their seventh top-10 team this season and their second ranked opponent in a row, after routing 12th-ranked Alabama this week, 81-57. The victory evened Auburn's league mark at 3-3 and pushed the team to 13-8 overall.

Auburn leads the all-time series with Florida, 86-65, but the Gators have closed the gap a bit with seven straight wins over the Tigers coming into this matchup.

Florida struggled to get a three-point win over Mississippi State this week, as the team shot just .417 from the floor and turned the ball over 15 times. Corey Brewer led the team to victory with a game-high 20 points. Florida trailed at the break by four points, but went on an early run in the second stanza to regain the momentum and earn the win. Taurean Green and Joakim Noah added 11 and 10 points, respectively, while Al Horford just missed a double- double with nine points and 14 rebounds. The Gators have been a much more potent offensive squad on the season, averaging 82.3 ppg, while leading the nation in field-goal percentage (.542). All five starters are averaging double digits, led by Green's 13.5 ppg. Brewer and Noah follow at 12.8 ppg each, with Horford (11.8 ppg) and Lee Humphrey (10.4 ppg) getting into the act as well. Noah and Horford provide the muscle on the glass, combining for just over 17 rebounds per game.

The Tigers are a decent offensive team as well, averaging 73.3 ppg, on a steady .452 shooting. The team also boasts of five double-digit averages, proof of serious scoring depth. Quan Prowell and Rasheem Barrett lead the way with 12.4 ppg each. They are followed closely by Frank Tolbert (12.2 ppg), Korvotney Barber (12.0 ppg) and Josh Dollard (11.6 ppg). Dollard leads the team on the boards at 7.3 rpg, but gets plenty of help from Prowell (7.0 rpg) and Barber (6.3 rpg). Auburn dispensed of Alabama this week thanks to a crushing 25-7 run to open up the second half. The victory halted a seven-game win streak for Alabama in the series, as four Tigers finished in double figures. Barber led the way with 18 points, Tolbert came off the bench to tally 17, followed by Dollard, who had 16. Prowell notched a double-double with 14 points and 10 rebounds, as Auburn shot .576 from the floor in the game, including a ridiculous .679 in the second half (19-of-28).

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.