All-UFA Team: The best of the leftovers

Hockey Betting Lines

07/15/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Despite his surprisingly deliberate search for a new team, Ilya Kovalchuk is still gaining headlines as the top free agent left on the NHL's open market.

While it's certainly shocking that we are two weeks into hockey's signing season and the uber-talented Russian winger has not yet decided on a new home, it should also be noted that Kovalchuk is far from the only recognizable unrestricted free agent left to be had.

Kovalchuk would clearly head the list of any All-Free Agent team, but, for our purposes here, we'll pretend that Kovalchuk has already signed.

First off, his value right now is so much higher than any other available player that including him on our team would qualify as a no-brainer. Secondly, so much has already been said about Kovalchuk this summer that I think we are all suffering from a severe case of "Kovi fatigue". Whether he lands in New Jersey, LA, St. Petersburg or elsewhere, at this point there is really nothing left to say about the guy that hasn't already been stated dozens of times over.

With the requisite Kovalchuk talk out of the way, let's take a look at some big free agents that have flown under the radar this summer.

LEFT WING

ALEXANDER FROLOV

Like Kovalchuk, Frolov is a talented left winger who should just be entering the prime of his career. Unlike his countryman, Frolov has been dogged by criticism concerning his consistency and his frequent offensive dry spells. Still, while it's clear Frolov is no Kovalchuk, the 28-year-old did manage to produce 168 goals and 381 points in seven seasons with the Los Angeles Kings. He also notched 32 goals in 2008-09 before disappointing with just 19 tallies in 81 games last year for the Kings. Frolov's lapses in production are a big reason the Kings are in the Kovalchuk race to begin with, but perhaps a fresh start with a new club could do the former first-round draft pick a world of good. It remains to be seen whether Frolov's new home will be in North America or back home in the Kontinental Hockey League.

RIGHT WING

TEEMU SELANNE

Even though he recently turned 40, Selanne's age shouldn't prevent him from producing should he decide to come back for an 18th NHL campaign in 2010-11. But it's hard to determine if "The Finnish Flash" is a true free agent or if he will only re-sign with Anaheim, the city he's called home for the last five seasons. With Selanne's countryman Saku Koivu signed for two more years, Selanne will likely only consider offers from the Ducks, who are in a transitional phase but still have use for this future Hall of Famer. Selanne has played in just 145 games over the last three seasons, but has produced an impressive 125 points (66 goals, 59 assists) over that span. Bill Guerin is another right wing option who is also 40 years old. The American had 21 goals and 24 assists for Pittsburgh last year and, unlike Selanne, Guerin has shown that he is open to signing with just about anybody who is interested.

CENTER

MIKE MODANO

The highest-scoring U.S.-born player in NHL history still may opt for retirement, but if he does return for the 2010-11 campaign it won't be for the Dallas Stars -- the franchise he's been a part of since being selected first overall by the Minnesota North Stars in 1988. Modano, 40, saw his minutes dwindle the last few years in Dallas, but he still managed a decent 14 goals and 30 points while playing in just 59 games during an injury-plagued 2009-10 season. Detroit has expressed interest in signing Modano, as have the Minnesota Wild, who would certainly give their fans a thrill if they could lure the future Hall of Famer back to the Twin Cities. Perhaps a return to the North Star State could rejuvenate his career, but if he is dogged by injuries once again then it would clearly be time to call it a career.

DEFENSEMEN

WILLIE MITCHELL

Mitchell's 2009-10 season ended in January when he suffered a concussion, and the 33-year-old has yet to resume skating. Still, his combination of size, skill and responsible play make him the best all-around defenseman left on the open market. Mitchell had four goals, eight assists and was a plus-13 for Vancouver last season and the Canucks clearly missed his steady play on the back end in the playoffs this past spring. The only reason he is still available is because of his post-concussion symptoms, but if he makes a successful return to skating soon it won't take long for NHL suitors to come calling.

MARC-ANDRE BERGERON

Bergeron offers much more than Mitchell in the offensive zone, but his defensive lapses are a cause for concern. Despite playing in just 60 regular season games with Montreal last year, Bergeron still managed to post 13 goals and 34 points for the Canadiens and also added six points in 19 playoff games for the Habs. Bergeron's biggest asset is a terrific shot, which makes him a very valuable weapon on the power play. Still, Bergeron's deficiencies in his own zone prevent him from being a guy who can log tons of minutes for a contending team.

GOALTENDER

JOSE THEODORE

Many folks would place Marty Turco ahead of Theodore as the best goaltender available, but it's clear that Theodore has been the better backstop over the past few years. Theodore was Washington's main goaltender again last season, but for a second straight playoffs, head coach Bruce Boudreau opted to switch to Semyon Varlamov as the No. 1 guy early in the postseason. Boudreau's decision puzzled me the first time and made just about as much sense this past spring, but perhaps Theodore could do better on a team that has an interest in playing defense rather than simply blaming the goaltender when things go bad in the playoffs. To be fair, Theodore's stellar 62-24-12 record in his two regular seasons with Washington also had a lot to do with the Capitals' high- scoring offense, but at 33 years old, the former Hart Trophy and Vezina winner at least proved he can still carry the load for an NHL team.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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